By NewsDesk  @infectiousdiseasenews

Scenarios for the spread of COVID-19

The Swedish Public Health Agency has developed scenarios for what the spread of COVID-19 in Sweden could look like in the coming year.

The report presents three scenarios for the continued spread of COVID-19 in the coming year, until 1 September 2021. The simulated development is based for all scenarios on reported cases between 23 February and 4 July 2020.

Scenario zero illustrates the development if the current low level of spread of infection persists, which results in a declining spread. Scenario one shows a spread that increases rapidly in the autumn of 2020 and then decreases rapidly. Scenario two shows a more protracted and evenly increasing spread.

The scenarios are included in the government assignment “Plan for any new outbreaks of COVID-19” and shall form the basis for planning for the Swedish Public Health Agency, the Medical Products Agency, the County Administrative Boards, MSB and the National Board of Health and Welfare.

Guidance for the assessment of immunity after COVID-19 infection

The Swedish Public Health Agency has now produced a guide that makes it clear who is judged to have some form of immunity to COVID-19, and what it means for how to have close contact with others.

Previously, a test showing that one carries antibodies to COVID-19 was needed for a person to be said to have some form of immunity. The Swedish Public Health Agency now makes the assessment that even people who have had COVID-19 infection that has been confirmed with PCR tests and recovered have a very low risk of becoming ill again for at least six months ahead. Although everyone who has been ill with COVID-19 does not develop measurable levels of antibodies in the blood, these people have probably developed some form of immune response.

If you are judged to have some form of immunity according to the criteria in the new guidelines and are completely free of symptoms that indicate COVID-19, it means that you have less risk of infection, and thus also less risk of passing the infection on to others in society. It also means an opportunity to hang out with other people – even indoors – regardless of whether you or the people you want to meet belong to a risk group. Note that each person must always make their own risk assessment before associating with others, and that the general infection control measures that apply in society and in the workplace must continue to be followed. In health care, hygiene routines and routines regarding personal protective equipment must also continue to be followed.

The guidance is aimed at regions and municipalities that develop support for various activities on issues of immunity.